Travel advisors say that the early Wave season has so far seen strong pricing, which along with cruise lines coming into 2025 in their strongest booked position in history, has contributed to some dampening of demand.
Travel sellers say that with less cruise inventory to sell, a slip in demand has not been unexpected and has pushed up rates.
"Because the industry is so well-booked forward, price has been really strong," said Alex Sharpe, CEO of Signature Travel Network. "Demand isn't quite there, but it shouldn't be because we're better booked."
Sharpe said there are fewer available cabins in the Caribbean, Europe and Alaska, and that demand has been weaker than it was in 2024 by "a couple of points."
Geoff Cox, vice president of sales and marketing at KHM Travel Group, said the high prices are having an impact.
"Pricing is high. That's the main driver for a slow start," Cox said, adding that 2025 is still off to a great start with a record amount of payouts to KHM advisors. "Our commission payout for January was up 28% versus last year. Not worried about 2025; 2026 is the concern now. At some point, slow-booking months catch up and revenue drops."
Cox said it's too early to judge the vibe of this year's Wave but that so far he has yet to see a major bump in bookings. KHM's Royal Caribbean International bookings were "a little up," while Carnival Cruise Line's were "a little down," Cox said. But he's not worried.
"Like everyone else, we came into 2025 with a ton already on the books so we should have another record-breaking year," Cox said. "We have had a long, cold winter so far, so I will be curious to see if we get a bump because people are tired of the cold" and are spurred to book vacations in warm areas.
Jackie Friedman, president of host agency Nexion, said that early Wave season patterns have been unusual but that members are now seeing more bookings and momentum for 2026.
"This year has been less predictable, with a slower-than-normal start," she said. "But we've seen an uptick over the past couple of weeks, particularly in the premium, luxury and river cruise segments."
Sharpe cited other factors that could be dampening demand, such as current events, like the wildfires in Los Angeles and news about the new presidential administration. Friedman said Nexion is "actively monitoring the effects of trade disputes and global economic shifts."
Royal Caribbean Group still cruising along
The only major cruise company to report early 2025 Wave season progress, Royal Caribbean Group, has not noted any demand slowdown, with CEO Jason Liberty in late January saying it has seen "incredible booking activity" this year.
The group experienced its highest Wave season booking week ever in late January with demand above 2024 levels, Liberty said.
He attributed the success to consumers being bolstered by strong labor markets, high wages, surplus savings, elevated wealth levels and making travel a priority.
"American households are wealthier than ever, with continued wage growth and low unemployment driving strong consumer spending," Liberty said.
Travel advisors are delivering "meaningfully more bookings than last year at higher rates," he added, saying that direct-to-consumer channels are also "performing extremely well" and that Royal has added hundreds of new capabilities to its digital platforms in the past year as interest in direct booking has grown.
Business in the Caribbean has been particularly strong for the group, with two of its newest ships, the Icon of the Seas and Utopia of the Seas, both performing "well above expectations," said Naftali Holtz, Royal's CFO. Alaska bookings are also "very strong and continue to surpass our expectations," he added.
While it was too soon for Carnival Corp. CEO Josh Weinstein to talk about Wave season performance during the company's Q4 earnings call in December, he said trends were good.
"It's been a remarkable ride for two years," he said. "It feels like Wave hasn't stopped since summer of 2022."
Cruise analysts like what they see
Analysts also cited indications that Wave is off to a strong start, especially in terms of pricing.
Patrick Scholes, an analyst with Truist Securities, said interviews with senior executives in the travel industry and data about trends are encouraging.
"Our conversations in our research continue to strongly indicate ticket pricing growth for 2025 is tracking well above consensus expectations," Scholes said.
Cleveland Research Co., a consulting market intelligence firm, surveyed travel advisors in January and found the majority noticed 2025 pricing running close to 5% above 2024 levels.
"Overall cruise bookings growth has been robust and continues to outperform other verticals in travel," said Vince Ciepiel, a senior research analyst and partner at Cleveland Research.